Decomposition laws of tungsten prices fluctuation since 1900 and its applications
(1. Institute for Metal Resources Strategy, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China;
2. School of Mathematics and Statistics, Central South University, Changsha 410075, China;
3. School of Business, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China)
2. School of Mathematics and Statistics, Central South University, Changsha 410075, China;
3. School of Business, Central South University, Changsha 410083, China)
Abstract: Tungsten current price was transformed yearly to its constant price since 1900, which is roughly decomposed into four components as trend, cycle, impact and random. The core prices, consisting of the trend and the cycle, present regularities that a long-run cycle is embedded within two major cycles, and major cycle is composed of low-price period and high-price period, along with the rapid rise into a tower, and along with deep down into next trough; three sharply upward shocks occur by the events in a tower. Fluctuations in prices trend to slow cycles and expand the bands. It can be expected that tungsten price will highly stand over 17 a, and is is a advice that reducing production and restricting export maybe maintain a high price level.
Key words: tungsten; price; cycle; trend; impact; fixed price; strategy; management