To predict the ductile fracture behavior of a ZK61M high-strength magnesium alloy sheet during hot deformation, experiments and numerical simulations were performed under specific conditions. According to the stress state parameters and fracture strain data obtained for different specimens, the undetermined coefficients of four fracture models were solved using the particle swarm optimization algorithm. According to the error evaluation results, the modified Wilkins model was the most accurate. This model was introduced into a finite element, and the results were compared with experimental results. The results indicated that the mean relative errors of the fracture displacement and fracture load of the tensile parts were <15%, and the mean relative error of the forming depth of the cylindrical parts was 13.88%. The established finite element model can accurately simulate the experimental process and predict the fracture position.