To quantify the disturbance range of the metal ore caving method, a new method to predict the disturbance range based on rock mechanics parameters is proposed. By combining the rock mechanics index with random medium theory, the prediction correction formula of the disturbance range is established. Based on disturbance equivalent centre and disturbance attenuation sphere, the two-dimensional safety criterion of mining disturbance in metal mines is derived. The new method is applied to 6 mines and the Jianshan Iron Mine, and the numerical simulation of the Jianshan Iron Mine by FLAC^3D model is performed. The posteriori error ratio between predicted value and measured value is 0.0357, and the multi-factor cross analysis shows that the relative error of this method to the result is only 0.078. It is found that the method has high prediction accuracy and does not significantly affect the security.